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The End of Oil: On the Edge of a Perilous New World |
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The End of Oil: On the Edge of a Perilous New World
List Price: $14.95
Our Price: $10.17
Availability: Usually ships in 24 hours
Manufacturer: Mariner Books
Author: Paul Roberts
Binding: Paperback
Publication Date: 2005-04-05
Publisher: Mariner Books
Label: Mariner Books
Number Of Pages: 416
Features:
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Editorial Review:
You live in this world. You use oil. You must read this book.
The situation is alarming and irrefutable: within thirty years, even by conservative estimates, we will have burned our way through most of the oil that is readily available to us. Already, the costly side effects of dependence on fossil fuel are taking their toll. Even as oil-related conflict threatens entire nations, individual consumers are suffering from higher prices at the gas pump, rising health problems, and the grim prospect of long-term environmental damage.
In this frank and balanced investigation, Paul Roberts offers a timely wake-up call. He talks to both oil optimists and oil pessimists, delves deep into the economics and politics of oil, and considers the promises and pitfalls of alternatives such as wind power, hybrid cars, and hydrogen. A new afterword brings the book up to the minute. Brisk, immediate, and accessible, this is essential reading for anyone who uses oil, which is to say every one of us.
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Customer Reviews
Average Customer Rating: 
OK, but could go further  2008-10-21
Roberts has written an readable book covering the problems of further oil exploration, discovery and extraction, and then talks briefly about the problems of global warming. He then goes on to talk about alternatives to oil.
Here he gets a little confused between two separate things, one, the source of energy, and two, the delivery of that energy to where it's needed. Oil does both of these.
Roberts talks about a possible future "hydrogen economy" as the most viable alternative, while dismissing nuclear and renewables and other sources of energy, but hydrogen is not an energy source: it is an energy delivery method. Some energy source has to make the hydrogen in the first place. Therefore his dismissal of solar and nuclear is not as easy as he makes out. Also, he dismisses geothermal energy in less than a sentence, which is far less than it deserves.
In doing this, he confuses the physically possible with the economically viable. Solar, nuclear and geothermal are at least physically possible as alternatives, as they can probably produce the required energy: the only question is their economics. His discussion of their economics is perhaps valid, but economics is all relative. The question is at what point other energy sources become economic and what the consequences of using them are.
All that is less of a review, and more of a critique. While the book is highly topical, and very readable without dumbing down, it confuses a number of points that need to be distinguished.
Excellent and thorough book, misleading title  2008-09-27
The title of the book makes it sound like an alarmist clamour concerned with peak oil. This couldn't be further from the truth. It is instead a comprehensive overview of the whole shebang: the energy crisis and the shape of things to come. Not only oil, but other hydrocarbon fuels, hydrogen, nuclear, wind, solar, energy efficiency and the economic implications of all the above are discussed, in a sober and impartial manner. Roberts does not appear to be lobbying for any particular energy source, in fact, he details the great leaps currently made in wind farms, fuel cells, clean coal and solar power, but is quick to point out the practical shortcomings, economic considerations and incredible technical challenges.
The book is rife with well-backed claims, interesting (if unsettling) facts and cogent arguments. I also found the important history lessons on the emergence of the hydrocarbon economy and the 1973 oil embargo very informative and interesting (do take into account, however, that this is from a lay reader's perspective).
Some reviewers note that the book quickly became a bit awkwardly out of date. This is true to some extent. The "worst case" scenario where oil reaches $50/barrel and sends the world economy plunging now seems like a bright picture. Another case in point is where Roberts predicts that since US interference in Iraq to "secure" oil supply caused more harm than good through disruption, Iraqi oil exports will essentially never rise above pre-war levels. This turned out to be wrong: it did in fact shatter that barrier in 2007.
A commendable aspect of the book is how Roberts courageously and continuously lambastes the Bush administration, the automotive industry, the coal lobby and other major hydrocarbon stakeholders, but at the same time acknowledges that the massive asset inertia of the current energy industry makes lowering emissions and improving efficiency an immense economic and pragmatic challenge. These kinds of objective analyses almost go as far as watering down the author's plea: sometimes the reader may get the impression that there's enough ammunition in the book to argue both for complacency and immediate action.
Still an excellent primer on the economics of hydrocarbons and alternatives 2008-08-31
This book was published about four years ago, and it is interesting to compare some of its future projections with the current reality. The worse case scenario envisioned in the last chapter has oil going to $50 a barrel, a far cry from the habitual $100 or more for a barrel now, not to mention a high of almost $150. The United States has arrived at the point of sending on the order of 700 billion dollars a year overseas to mostly unstable governments. Yet, despite what in the context of this book would be a horrifying emergency situation, the winds of change have been very slow to make much of a difference. The entrenched oil interests, which the author does not underestimate, have kicked into gear; the Bush Administration has battened down the hatches and basically all they have to say is "drill! drill! drill!". Oil industry influence continues to do its work putting the breaks on renewables: tax credits have not been extended by Congress.
A case made here is that almost all of the easy oil has been exploited. Oil is only produced in Nature under special circumstances. Organic material has to be buried and then cooked in a narrow temperature range (100-135 degrees C). Then, it has to to be confined by rock formations so that it does not leak away into nothing. Worldwide, there is estimated to be 600 geological systems where oil can be extracted for commercial uses. Of that, about 400 have been explored and the remaining lie in hard-to-reach areas such as the Arctic and continental shelves. OPEC has clearly emerged the winner in the battle for easy oil, and has left the big oil companies and most of the non-OPEC world desperately scrambling to find new supplies. The likelihood that enough oil can be extracted from costly out-of-the-way places to compete with the power that OPEC can exert in the marketplace is not great, to say the least. In other words, drilling in costly, remote places will not make a dent anytime soon in the 700 billion dollars that the U.S. pays every year for its oil import bill.
Time is not on our side and the subject is much larger than just finding oil and dealing with OPEC. It concerns not only the use of oil but the use of all hydrocarbons. Just how much carbon dioxide can the atmosphere tolerate before serious disruptions occur to life on planet earth? The author cites experts who maintain that 550ppm might be a tipping point and that we are speeding toward that state. Of particular concern is the developing world - China and India - and the breakneck pace in which dirty fuels, namely coal, are being burned in order to grow emerging economies. The author asserts that the developing world will never take a leadership role in developing alternative energies. They cannot afford to invest except in the quickest and dirtiest. The rich countries, particularly the United States, will have to take the lead.
The author reviews the positives and negatives of alternative energy: hydrogen, wind and solar. Wind and solar offer growth opportunities in the near term, but are problematic as dependable sources because of their intermittency. Hydrogen may work as a substitute for oil sometime in the future but not in the near future. A very important factor in reducing hydrocarbon use is efficiency and conservation. In the 1980s energy efficiency was a significant factor in quelling OPEC's power to raise prices, but energy efficiency was a victim of its own success and Ronald Reagan moved to shutdown such efforts because of the free market meddling.
The big question concerns the role of government - particularly the United States and the rich countries - in instituting a price on carbon and encouraging the development of alternative fuels and "bridging" solutions. Will the world act proactively with a plan to move away from hydrocarbons or will it only react after disasters? If free market supply siders have their way and carbon is never recognized as having an economic cost, there will not be an economic incentive not to use cheap hydrocarbons; and if government does not step in and aid research and development for alternatives, it's less likely that in the near future the private sector will find enough economic incentives to make energy breakthroughs. Then, China and India will have no alternative but to continue to burn dirty fossil fuels.
In enshrining the free markets and the economics of supply, the U.S. will most likely be involved in more overseas conflicts and wars, particularly in the Middle East. Despite the way politicians downplay the matter, the two wars the U.S. has fought in Iraq have both been about opening up the supply of oil. If oil continues to be the life blood of the economy, then the forces that protect that oil will become more militant in protecting that crucial supply especially from the Middle East. If the Saudi royal family loses control to fundamentalists, the stage will be set for another war.
the oil end 2008-07-25
this is a very intertesting book for me because present a high perfomance for the our future
Makes analysis of the contemporary energy order accessible. 2008-07-10
When I decided to read this book, I did so with the expectation of learning something only after wading through a great degree of partisan political rhetoric. It did not take me long to realize that Mr. Roberts' book is not what I had expected.
He makes this complex issue accessible to the layman looking to familiarize himself with not only oil, but the energy economy. Rather choose a side and engage in partisan sniping, he tells the good, the bad, and the ugly of the policies advocated by every party involved in the energy debate. Not only does he analyze our present situation, but he also studies our several possible ways forward into a new energy economy.
If I were pressed to make a complaint, it would be that I read the original hardcover edition of the book. A lot of the speculation regarding "worst case" scenarios involve $50 a barrel oil. Now that we are nearly $100 past that worst case, the educated speculation portrayed in the book should be coming to pass in the market. I would like to see either a completely updated 2008 edition or at least one with an updated preface.
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